Is Warren Buffett Really A Value
Investor?
He's one of the most famous investors of all
time and has certainly earned his nickname of "The Oracle of Omaha".
Warren Buffett has long been hailed as a value
investor. But is that statement still accurate?
What Is Value
Investing?
Value investing can mean a number of different
things, but is generally meant to refer to a class of investors who look for
investments trading at a price below where certain valuation fundamentals suggest they should be trading at. For example, a stock
can trade at a price-to-earnings
(P/E) or price-to-book
(P/B) value below its peers or the market average
in general. Overall, value investing is an investment philosophy of finding
undervalued securities that should eventually increase in value to be closer in
line with (or above) the metrics of rivals or stock market averages.
On the flip side, growth investors are said to be more interested in the growth potential of a security whose underlying company has above-average sales or profit expansion prospects. Given this higher growth potential, a growth investor may be willing to pay above-average P/E, P/B or other valuation metrics compared to rivals or the market in general.
The value investing crowd has its origins in the 1934 text "Security Analysis" by Benjamin Graham and David Dodd and has been further developed by Warren Buffett, a past student of Graham who has also preached that a security eventually trades up to its intrinsic value. Buffett championed Graham's approach to buy a security with a satisfactory margin of safety, or, in Graham's words, "a favourable difference between price on the one hand and indicated or appraised value on the other." (This simple measure can help investors determine whether a stock is a good deal.
Where Does Buffett Fit?
In
this context, Buffett is considered a value investor. More specifically, he
relies on estimating a firm's future cash flows and discounting them back to the present
to get an estimated intrinsic value for a company when it comes to investing in
its stock. Intrinsic value is a theoretical value assuming one could know a
firm's future cash flows with certainty, so the reality is that
it is a very subjective measure and investors may come to widely varying
estimations of intrinsic value, even when looking at the same set of data,
valuation metrics, etc.
But in the context of value versus growth investing, Buffett is actually a bit of both. In his words, "growth and value investing are joined at the hip" and that understanding is required to find a company and underlying stock with solid growth prospects and a market value well below intrinsic value. The best illustration of this is the growth of Berkshire Hathaway's non-insurance businesses over the past four decades. Below is a chart that Buffett provided in Berkshire's 2010 shareholder letter:
But in the context of value versus growth investing, Buffett is actually a bit of both. In his words, "growth and value investing are joined at the hip" and that understanding is required to find a company and underlying stock with solid growth prospects and a market value well below intrinsic value. The best illustration of this is the growth of Berkshire Hathaway's non-insurance businesses over the past four decades. Below is a chart that Buffett provided in Berkshire's 2010 shareholder letter:
Period
|
Annual Earnings Growth
|
1970-1980
|
20.8%
|
1980-1990
|
18.4%
|
1990-2000
|
24.5%
|
2000-2010
|
20.5%
|
Over this time period, earnings growth averaged 21% annually while Berkshire's stock price grew at an
annual compounded rate of 22.1%, almost completely mirroring the growth in
earnings. In this respect, Buffett is the ultimate growth investor because
earnings grew about twice the level of the stock market during this period. In
Buffett's words from this year's shareholder letter, "market prices and
intrinsic value often follow very different paths - sometimes for extended
periods - but eventually they meet." (Find out how Mr. Market's mood swings
can mean great opportunities for you.
The Bottom Line
Again, perhaps the most appropriate conclusion
to make is that Buffett is both a value and growth investor. At the outset of
making an investment, it is reasonable to conclude that he uses a margin of
safety by purchasing a stock with valuation metrics that are well below
average. But overall, growth has to be there so that the firm can eventually
trade up closer to its intrinsic value and growth potential must be well above
average to double the market's return over the long haul.
To be a truly successful investor, individuals must take both a value and growth perspective when it comes to spotting undervalued investments and outperforming the market over time. Valuation multiples including P/E and P/B ratios are a good starting point, but at the end of the day it is also necessary to estimate a firm's growth prospects and cash flows going forward, and come to an independent determination of intrinsic value.
To be a truly successful investor, individuals must take both a value and growth perspective when it comes to spotting undervalued investments and outperforming the market over time. Valuation multiples including P/E and P/B ratios are a good starting point, but at the end of the day it is also necessary to estimate a firm's growth prospects and cash flows going forward, and come to an independent determination of intrinsic value.
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